Why the future of drinking might be soft drinks

The drinks industry is betting big on low-and-no. From zero-proof spirits to 0.0% lagers, innovation pipelines have been dominated by alcohol-free and reduced-ABV launches. In the UK, many brands are also reformulating to lower ABV – not just to appeal to health-conscious consumers, but to mitigate rising alcohol duty. The strategy is clear: if people want to drink less, give them alcohol – just diluted, de-alcoholised or duty-efficient.

But what if that’s the wrong read? Our nationally-representative survey of 4,000 UK and US adults suggests that when consumers moderate or abstain, they aren’t flocking to alcohol’s closest substitutes. During Dry January and beyond, people are far more likely to switch to water, hot drinks and simple soft drinks than to alcohol-free wine, beer or spirits.

In other words, while brands are investing heavily in recreating alcohol, many consumers appear to be moving away from the category entirely.

To understand how this shift looks from inside the drinks market, we spoke to Jack Scott, Co-Founder of DASH Water. DASH is not only the Official Soft Drink of the 2026 Dry January challenge but also an Attest client. Positioned firmly outside the alcohol-replication space, DASH offers a useful lens on what people are actually choosing when they step back from drinking.

The drinks winning the moderation moment

This year, 26% of consumers said they were taking part in Dry January, while a further 28% opted for a “Damp January”, choosing moderation over abstinence. Our research found that those abstaining planned to replace alcohol with: water (57%), coffee or tea (53%), and carbonated drinks (47%). Alcohol-free replicative drinks play a far smaller role: beer (12%), wine (7%) and spirits (4%).

That trend was reflected in-market. DASH saw sales rise 97% year-on-year across its top three retailers during Dry January, selling more than one million cans in the first two weeks alone. Crucially, around half of those gains came from shoppers who had bought beer, wine or spirits the previous January. That’s not just substitution within the alcohol aisle – it’s migration into a different category altogether.

That tells us this isn’t just people swapping one alcohol-style drink for another – it’s a genuine shift towards lighter, more refreshing options that fit naturally into Dry January. Being the Official Soft Drink of Dry January gave us a powerful platform to show that going alcohol-free doesn’t have to mean compromise.

– Jack Scott, Co-Founder of DASH Water 

Why low-and-no isn’t the default answer

With 3 in 10 consumers moderating their alcohol intake during January, one might have expected it to be a boom time for low ABV beverages, but only 6% said they would be switching to low-alcohol variants. Instead, they preferred to take a ‘mindful’ approach to drinking – focusing on cutting back how much or how often they drink, rather than reducing the ethanol in what they drink. 

The assumption has long been that if consumers drink less alcohol, they’ll opt for low-alcohol or alcohol-free versions of the same products. The data, however, tells a different story; when people choose not to drink alcohol, non-replicative drinks are their first choice. 

Scott suggests the appeal lies in creating distance rather than imitation:

When people step away from alcohol, they aren’t looking for a compromise – they want something that genuinely tastes great and makes them feel like going sober is worth it. Many aren’t after drinks that mimic alcohol or remind them of what they’re avoiding, instead they want a delicious drink like DASH that feels as though they are hitting the reset button.

In other words, for many consumers, Dry January isn’t about preserving the ritual – it’s about breaking it. Water and hot drinks are simple. They don’t attempt to recreate the sensory cues of alcohol. They signal a clean break. Beyond Dry January, this distinction matters for those who have stopped drinking due to addiction or problematic use. For them, imitation products may not feel liberating – they may feel triggering.

Meanwhile, elective non-drinkers often never enjoyed the taste of alcohol in the first place. Our data shows 21% of consumers are tee-total. And when people opt out, they don’t necessarily want something that looks and feels like what they’ve rejected.

Moderation isn’t substitution 

Financial pressure is accelerating this shift. Nearly half of those participating in Dry January were motivated by saving money, while a previous Attest study showed 42% of UK and 31% of US consumers have cut back on alcohol purchases to manage the cost of living. 

Alcohol is both discretionary and expensive. Soft drinks and hot beverages feel more affordable, but crucially they don’t feel like a downgrade. As Scott notes:

Cost plays a huge role. People are naturally gravitating towards drinks that feel good value without feeling like a compromise. What’s interesting is that affordability doesn’t mean people are willing to sacrifice taste – it still has to feel enjoyable and social, not like a downgrade.

Meanwhile, coffee shops have emerged as key social hubs, with 37% of consumers swapping pubs and bars for a cafe in January. That suggests socialising has never really been about alcohol itself. It’s about connection, treat and occasion – all of which can be delivered without ethanol.

People still want to have fun, make connections, and have a sense of treat – just without the hangover. Coffee shops offer that perfectly: they’re social, affordable, daytime-friendly and inclusive. Dry January hasn’t stopped people from going out; it’s just shifted where and how they do it.

This matters for the long term. The vast majority of Dry January participants see it as a jumping-off point for year-round moderation. Younger consumers in particular show strong intent to continue cutting back beyond January. In general, Gen Z is showing a clear shift to moderation – and early research we have carried out into the next generation suggests Gen Alpha is set to follow in their footsteps.

The competitive set has changed

If consumers increasingly view alcohol as optional – something to moderate, not default – then the competitive set changes.

The battle is no longer just between beer brands or within the low-and-no aisle. It’s between alcohol and everything else people might drink at a social occasion. That reframes moderation from a reformulation challenge to a relevance challenge. Scott believes the future lies in drinks designed for specific moments:

There’s definitely room for alcohol-free beers and spirits, and they serve an important purpose for many people. But this research shows growing demand for drinks that aren’t trying to be alcohol at all. People don’t want one drink to try and do everything; they want the right drink for the right moment, whether that’s socialising, unwinding, or staying focused. And above all, taste remains the number one driver.

If that’s true, soft drinks are uniquely positioned – flexible across occasions, more affordable, increasingly premiumised and unburdened by alcohol’s health and financial trade-offs.

The rise of Dry January may have started as a health campaign. But the longer-term implication is more structural. As moderation becomes normalised and sobriety becomes situationally acceptable, consumers are not necessarily looking for alcohol without alcohol.

They’re looking for something different. And that’s why the future of alcohol might not be found in the low-and-no aisle at all – but in the soft drinks fridge.

Want to look at the data in more detail? View the key UK or US Dry January stats.